Mariuca Dinu

March 9, 2014

Varianta 1. Primavara ruseasca. Este cea mai soft

Scenario Russian spring

1. Kiev takes a wait concentrates troops on the border with the Crimea , threatens , but direct action is not transferred . U.S. strongly pressured by Russia , frozen accounts are active in the information war , but themselves and within NATO avoid direct clashes . Kiev receives substantial support from the West, but focuses on domestic issues . Closed the border with Russia .
Referendum passes, failures are minimal. The vast majority of joining the Russian . Referendum nobody recognizes except Russia. Russia raises the question of retaliatory actions to receive the Crimea to Russia . Both chambers promptly ratify . Crimea returned. It includes Russian troops .
West rages on Russia is strong pressure . Activation of militants in the North Caucasus , the excitement of the fifth column in Moscow. Putin maintains all its popularity among the people climaxes . It helps to cope with internal challenges .
2 . In eastern Ukraine Kiev starts tough punitive measures . Direct nationalist dictatorship . Individual attempts to attack on Crimea and acts of sabotage . Russian and Russian-speaking East and South start taking revenge for the loss of the Crimea. This leads to the onset of resistance. Begins the second phase of Ukrainian drama : The Battle for New Russia . People are waking up at once and quickly. In Ukraine, in connection with what is defined as "aggression Muscovites ", established a state of emergency . The last traces of democracy abolished . Elections are held in May in wartime .
3 . Nationalists arrange a series of terrorist attacks in Russia . In Russia itself, evolving mode , starts cleaning the fifth column .
4 . In Novorossia resistance increases and gradually moves to the phase of direct rebellion against Kiev henchmen. Blood civil war . Russia deploys massive effective support structure symmetrically West supports Kiev . At a certain moment, in response to the sabotage in Russia and bloody actions of the nationalists and the repressive apparatus of Kiev against civilians and East of Ukraine , Russia enters its troops to the East. West again threatens nuclear war. Another existential moment for Putin. But he can not stop . Goes hard (possibly with heavy losses ) exemption Novorossia . Left-bank Ukraine conquered , the border along the Dnieper . There's a new state : for example , Ukraine or the New Russia . Or repeated version of the Crimea.
5 . In the Right-Bank Ukraine , which does not recognize secession ( as Yugoslavia under Milosevic and later Serbia against Kosovo) , formed upon a new state - Ukraine -2 . On its territory military base located immediately NATO stopping the possibility of Russian move to Kiev.
6. The new Ukrainian government rigidly nationalist , quickly comes to a crisis. Inside start direct ethnic clashes ( Ruthenians , Hungarians, Poles , Romanians, other minorities ) and on political grounds ( power loss blamed for half the territories of Ukraine). State weakens . Begins the process of new secessions .
7. Russia does not stop there , but carries active in Europe , acting as the main element of the European Conservative Revolution . Europe starts to crack : some countries are behind the U.S., but more often begins to listen to Russia . On the background of the financial crisis , Russia's position becomes more attractive . Russia takes on board multipolarity kontinentalizm and new conservatism ( fourth political theory ) .
8. In western Ukraine , Ukraine -2 , in the end, came to power pro-European ( pro-German ) political force that begins to soften anti-Russian policy and away from the U.S. .
9. Across Europe, the process begins deamerikanizatsii creates autonomous system Evrokorps independent of NATO on the basis of the German Armed Forces and France.
10 . A new large - Continental Association , as a confederation of European and Eurasian Affairs , the European Union and the Eurasian Union. Russian , Ukrainians and Europeans are on the same side , the Americans - on the other . American hegemony and dominance of the dollar as well as domination of Atlanticism , liberalism and the financial oligarchy is completed. New page in world history. Slavs recombined not against Europe , but with Europe in the framework of a multipolar polycentric world . From Lisbon to Vladivostok .

Mariuca Dinu

March 9, 2014

varianta 2 Aleksandr Dughin
Razboi nuclear
World War Scenario

1. The U.S. is in such a monstrous economic and political situation that soberly aware that the situation will be rescued only World War . In this case , the U.S. will lead her by proxy , but still missing.
2 . In the Crimea in the next few days catching up Armed Forces of Ukraine , Kiev Washington promises to support NATO and renders it. In the Black Sea includes ships of the 6th Fleet of the U.S. Navy in the Mediterranean Sea . In the face of direct military pressure Putin loses determination. Begins to make a step back : do not hurry with the inclusion of Crimea , attempts to start negotiations with Kiev. Seeing that nuclear blackmail acts , Americans and Ukrainians go to the capture of the Crimea. In Crimea, the Yugoslav civil war in format with the active participation of NATO forces ( primarily air support , bombing , etc.)
3 . Putin understands that there is no way back , and fully involved in the war . Russia is beginning to have a desperate resistance in the Crimea ( the defense of Sevastopol -2). Russian troops are fighting to break the East of Ukraine and go to Kiev.
4 . NATO forces begin bombing Russian territories. Georgia enters the war and attacks from the South. China indignant , but directly into the war gets involved .
5 . Realizing that we were in a hopeless situation , Putin stated readiness to use nuclear weapons . Ukraine already has no value , a considerable part of the population in general destroyed in the Battle of the nuclear powers . That was the cause of the Third World all forget .
6. World freezes over the abyss .
7. Next forecast breaks for understandable reasons .

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  Un Prospectiv .
  America o fi cea mai puternica, dara re nevoie de aliati. Care i s-ar alatura intr-o aventura cu miza existentiala? Teoretic, doar aia unde Criza a lovit cel putin la fel de tare si gandesc la solutie in aceiasi termeni.

  
  
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  Todosiciuc Bogdan Adrian Americanii nu au mai avut un razboi echilibrat din 1945-1950 (WW2 + Coreea). Ce au avut pana acum au fost razboaie usoare, mai putin Vietnam unde in mod miraculos nordul a rezistat incredibil de mult si i-a invins cand s-au retras. In rest in Panama, Grenada, Irak, Afganistan invaziile au fost usoare si mai multi oameni au pierdut in urma insurgentelor decat a razboaielor directe.

  
  
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  Todosiciuc Bogdan Adrian Un razboi direct cu Rusia ar fi problematic pentru ca SUA nu ar putea sa invadeze un teritoriu asa de mare si sa sustina invazia (idem cu Napoleon si Hitler). Rusii de asemenea nu au capacitati atat de mari incat sa invadeze SUA. Nici una din tari nu are experienta necesara castigarii unui razboi echilibrat. Plus ca fiind puteri nucleare in momentul in care totul ar fi pierdut ambele natii ar utiliza arma nucleara. Din razboiul asta nu poate iesi nimeni invingator, de asta cred ca e cel mai putin probabil scenariu.

  
  
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  Mariuca Dinu Da. dar nici nu au mai fost atat de disperati, de saraciti si indoctrinati ca acum. Ce e de facut cu o populatie in care milioane de oameni traiesc din food stamps si au ajuns la a treia generatie de unemployzi. Razboi.

  
  
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  Todosiciuc Bogdan Adrian De acord, situatia in intreaga lume e din ce in ce mai proasta pentru populatie. Dar asta nu inseamna ca SUA s-ar baga intr-un razboi pe care nu l-ar putea castiga. Nu uita ca desi razboiul pe termen scurt aduce crestere economica si locuri de munca, pe termen lung si foarte lung aduce un faliment sigur pentru ca industria de razboi nu aduce plus-valoare in economie. Cel mai bun exemplu e Primul Razboi Mondial (care in cateva luni face centenarul apropo, lucru trecut cu vederea de toata lumea), pierdut de Puterile Centrale atunci cand erau practic in faliment si nu mai puteau sustine eforturile de razboi. Situatia ar fi identica si in cazul WW3.

  
  
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  Mariuca Dinu Am vrut sa spun ca, de data asta, nu au incotro. Am vayut ce s/a petrecut in Iugoslavia, si daca nu ar fi tragic, ar fi de ras ce inseamna "negocieri diplomatice" cand de fapt, se vrea razboi.

  
  
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  Todosiciuc Bogdan Adrian E un citat din vremea Razboiului Rece, cu autor necunoscut si atribuit mai multor personalitati, dar foarte adevarat: "Diplomacy is the art of saying "nice doggie" until you can find a rock"

  
  
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  Un Prospectiv .
  La faza asta, pierde cel care e geografic mai aoroape de teatrul de operatii--desi acesta se poate extinde prin multiple forma incat nimic sa nu mai fie in siguranta. Intotdeauna m-am gandit ca daca rusii incep si sprijine asimetric cum au facut americanii cu afganii in ani '80...

  
  
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  Gheorghe Gradinaru Un scenariu radical care mi se pare putin probabil. Exemplul Yugoslaviei, privind interventia NATO/SUA nu este viabil pentru Ukraina, fiind vorba de vecinatatea apropiata a Rusiei ,

Mariuca Dinu

March 9, 2014

varianta 3 Aleksandr Dughin
Maidan la nivel mondial
Scenario World Maidan

1. This week, Western pressure on Moscow climaxes . Strapped Ukrainian troops were preparing to invade the Crimea . Accounts of the political elite of Russia in the West arrested. Putin declared a "dictator ." Panic begins at the top of Russia. Liberal agents at the highest levels of power goes to the open sabotage. All press on Putin outside and inside , leading thousands of arguments that it does not annexed the Crimea and began negotiations with Kiev. American ships in the Black Sea . (However, the United States, in fact, not ready for the Third World , and it all just a bluff ) . Putin makes an attempt ( unsuccessful ) .
2 . Putin puts his hands . Reverses . At the forefront Medvedev establishing relations with Kiev .
3 . Referendum remains suspended or even ripped off. Inside Crimea begin excitement. Rises fifth column , separate territories and military installations swear Kiev.
4 . At this time, all pledged to 90s pro-American liberal network , including terrorists in the North Caucasus , the liberal intelligentsia of the capital ( Marsh ) and managed from Washington Atlanta - fascists , as well as part of the Ukrainian Diaspora mobilized pass into phase activation. Begins growth of the protest movement . Patriots disappointed weakness Putin , the opposition enjoys it and escalate the situation , blaming Putin in crisis. Economic sanctions against Russia worsen the situation . Starting salaries shortages , inflation soars . Information war reaches its peak . Frequent ethnic clashes , which have been artificially inflated . Engaged in war mezhduosobnoy North Caucasus .
5 . Putin's power begins to weaken . His entourage one by one either disappears or goes into opposition. Foreign accounts and selfishness converted " party of power " in " Party of Regions" .
6. There comes a collapse of the regime - in the spirit of Gorbachev. Chaos and civil war spread to Russia .
7. Deflects all affect Europe. On the background of success atlanto Ukrainian Nazis ( + chauvinism orientation as in the U.S. "Right Sector " Jarosz ) , begins the ascent of the European far-right groups. Amid growing immigration and ultra-liberalism European regimes atlanto - fascism in alliance with anarchism and revolutionary leftism (and libertarianism ) becomes a force similar to Salafis and Wahhabis in the Islamic world . European Maidan begins . Experience in some areas almost uncontrolled power of Athens transferred to other European countries.
8. World order is collapsing . Chaos is .
9. U.S. extend its hegemony , as against the background of global collapse and largely due to his they manage emergencies attributed to all other problems and contradictions .
10 . Old world in which we live today still inferior to the new , in which there will be countries such as Ukraine or Russia , and likely as Germany, France , Italy , Georgia, Turkey, Greece , Hungary, Romania , etc. Begin global Maidan with an uncertain outcome .

realism

Obviously, we have sketched only the most general and rough lines of force likely future . They themselves alternative , and at each point can be split , oscillations , deviation or unexpected turns . In this analysis, no foresight , no prophecy. It is, rather , deduction, just keep the lines of force of what is happening now , given that led to this date. If we see that a body (the thing being) say quite a long time moving in a straight line , we can predict that it will continue to be so moving. And if in a circle , the circle and continue on . This is not necessarily the story open. But its field lines are more or less constant and stable as track .
Important notice : that in times of crisis they realism content itself becomes different . If a peaceful and predictable , a disaster is always thought of as something exclusively, and therefore , it is unlikely not realistic , when disaster broke out , the most unrealistic scenario is , on the contrary , saying that everything will somehow be arranged gradually and most importantly - do not panic . Succumb to panic is not necessary, it is true. This is the most reliable and reasonable wish ram , given to the slaughterhouse . But not sheep , obviously , it is worth considering : the situation is now critical , and something from the above , certainly realized - to what extent , in what form , how quickly ? That we do not undertake to say . And then - everyone chooses his trench , his "party" , and actively or passively , as a subject or as an object participates in the world's history , again piercing and scary which gave itself felt.
No translation available

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  Un Prospectiv .
  Cum am mai scirs, sah nu pacanele!