Ce impact va avea volatilitatea din pietele globale de actiuni asupra economiei globale

Ce impact va avea volatilitatea din pietele globale de actiuni asupra economiei globale – 28 august 2015

Smaranda Dobrescu

In aceste zile pe plan international au tot circulat zvonuri despre volatilitatea din pietele globale de actiuni si s-a tot discutat despre ce anume ar putea insemna acest lucru pentru economia globala. Este doar o corectie a pietelor bursiere din China care a determinat mutatii in investitiile din intreaga lume? Ori experienta din ultimele zile este un simptom al unei inrautatiri profunde a economiei? Publicatia Social Europa a icerut parerea in aceasta chestiune a mai multor economisti de frunte:

Gustav Horn of the IMK in Düsseldorf said:

The Chinese bubble burst. This of a wider global importance only in the sense that we are still not able to detect these kind of problems early enough to prevent a panic reaction.

Dean Baker of the CEPR in Washington DC:

The main story is a simple one of a bubble in China's market bursting. This raises legitimate questions about China's near-term growth path. If China's economy slows significantly it will be a problem for countries that are major exporters to China, but not for the U.S. and Europe. The impact there will be fairly limited. My guess is that financial markets elsewhere in the world largely recover from the hit of the last few days, although they had been somewhat high, so there may not be a full recovery.

Ann Pettifor of Prime Economics:

The 2007-9 global financial crises was caused by an economic model based on financial de-regulation and liberalization, privatization of taxpayer-financed assets, excessive private indebtedness and wage repression. That economic model has not undergone fundamental or even superficial change since then. The failure to reform or transform this flawed economic model is causal of today's crisis, as it was of the 2007-9 crisis.

China is no longer able to help central bankers keep western economies alive. The model has led to a a surfeit of private debt, to a deficiency of global demand. The collapse in commodity prices signals a debt-deflationary period of stagnation (or worse) ahead. Until politicians, central bankers, economists and officials recognize this reality, and take action to reform and transform the existing economic model, there will be no cure for volatility, deflation and market failure. Stephen King of HSBC has warned: "the global economy is a ship sailing the seas of volatility with no lifeboats."

So yes, I beg to differ with the equanimity with economists analysis this week's stock market volatility. Because of the failure to deal with the causes of financial crises and market failure this is not just a correction. The global economy is sailing into dangerous waters.

Dupa cum se remarca, nu exista un acord asupra semnificatiei evenimentelor recente.Dar chiar acest fapt in sine este un semnal pentru riscuri semnificative ale economiei globale.Noi am ridicat o astfel de economie globala incat nimeni nu pare sa fie capabil sa monitorizeze riscurile in mod corect si sa prevada daca tulburarile sunt mai degraba locale sau vor avea serioase efecte globale.Poate ca a sosit momentul sa degajam parti din retea si sa facem interconexiunile mai transparente. In folosul general.

  Delia Bogdan Nu am considerat niciodata globalizarea ca fiind ceva necesar sau binevenit pentru omenire. Un fenomen plecat din niste calcule strict economice, in folosul marelui capital, a ajuns sa influenteze viata oamenilor la nivel intim si a creat o stare de nesiguranta generala, de care ne puteam lipsi cat de bine! nefiind priceputa in chestiuni economice, s-ar putea sa gresesc, dar mi se pare cel putin ciudat, daca nu chiar nelinistitor, ca soarta noastra sa fie decisa "de la distanta", iar noi sa nu putem face nimic!

 

  Octavian Lupu Ceea ce i se intampla economiei mondiale este un proces similar celui care a determinat schimbarile climatice ireversibile. Amandoua procesele au la baza lacomia umana care intodeauna a batut ratiunea, intelepciunea. Pentru mine si pentru altii, fara a fi mari economisti si ganditori ceea ce se intampla acum nu constituie o surpriza decat in ceea ce priveste magnitudinea fenomenului si rapiditatea cu care se desfasoara procesele. Va marturisesc un gand egoist: am sperat intodeauna ca efectele schimbarilor climaterice si ale crizei economice globale se vor manifesta cu toata magnitudinea de abia dupa ce voi fi apucat sa beneficiez si eu vreo 10-15 ani de pensie. Cred ca am fost prea optimist.