vineri, 24 aprilie 2015

Gheorghe Gradinaru
July 15, 2014
The recent Shangri-la meeting in Singapore saw some sharp exchanges between Chinese and other participants. Beijing’s deployment of an oil rig protected by more than 80 naval vessels in the South China Sea four days after President Barack Obama’s “reassurance trip” to China’s East Asian neighbors in April 2014 was widely seen as a deliberate and calculated provocation.
China and Strategic Imbalance
‘This is the decade of power transitions in Asia.’
THEDIPLOMAT.COM|BY MOHAN MALIK, THE DIPLOMAT

  • Un Prospectiv .
    "The key reason for China’s aggressive posturing on the seas is the tectonic shift in Beijing’s strategic environment that occurred following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991." 

    E ca si cum istoria ultimilor 13 ani, dela sept 2001 incoace, nu s-ar fi intamplat. Nu cumva e vorba de perceptia altui colaps? De exemplu, al ordinii internationale, pe care Bushh II a subminat-o la fiecare ocazie... 

    "These Asia-Pacific powers are today where Germany, France, Britain, and Italy were at the beginning of the 20th century."

    Daca Britain n-ar figura in lista, as fi zis: Iata un truism!

    "China’s Defense Minister, General Chang Wanquan, told U.S Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel in April 2014 that Beijing would make “no compromise, no concession, [and] no trading” in the fight for what he called his country’s “territorial sovereignty.” Chang warned Hagel: “The Chinese military can assemble as soon as summoned, fight any battle, and win.”"

    Ce-i asta daca nu declaratie de razboi in alb, balon de sapun?

    "Historically, the rise of a continental power has always led to the formation of a coalition of maritime powers to counterbalance it. This is particularly so if that continental power happens to have an authoritarian regime nursing historical grievances with active territorial disputes and/or happens to be a polarizing power. China is no exception to this rule."

    Sunt 2 chestii aici. La chestia cu regimul autoritar trebuie privit dintr-o ratiune pragmatica a maritimilor, nu doar a terestrilor.

    "No single power can dominate in the future, no matter how much soft and hard power it has. Nor can G-2 manage the world."

    Atentie!

    "During the Cold War, much of the economic growth took place within the U.S. hub-and-spokes alliance network in maritime Asia. Post-Cold War, economic growth has taken place in China, India, and continental Southeast Asia, outside of the U.S. Pacific alliance network."

    Atentie si mai mare!

    "Geopolitics and geology are closely interlinked. Just when China and the rest were writing off America as a declining power, the country finds itself on the cusp of achieving energy self-sufficiency, thanks to a breakthrough in fracking technology. The shale revolution could help the United States rejuvenate itself and prolong American dominance of the international order. The energy boom in the U.S. and Canada – if exploited fully – has the potential to change the power dynamics among great powers and revitalize U.S. alliances. It could turn yesterday’s winners into tomorrow’s losers. Just as the “old” Middle East is “moving East” to forge closer energy ties with China and India, the “new Middle East” (comprising Canada and the United States) could be “looking West” to sell tight oil and gas to Japan, India, South Korea, and Southeast Asian countries. The shale oil and gas bonanza would not only enhance American diplomatic leverage, it will also make the world oil market more diversified and more stable for oil prices, and will reduce consumers’ over-dependence on the volatile Middle East, the OPEC cartel, and Putin’s Russia."

    Mai realistic ar fi sa cauti sa pui un om pe Marte.

    " Contrary to what International Relations textbooks teach us, a country’s foreign policy is not a cold calculation of costs and benefits or pros and cons alone. It’s a mix of five “Ps”: passion, power, profit, pride and prejudice."

    Amin!

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